基于熵的不确定性项目投资决策优化模型

Research on the Optimization Analysis Method of Investment and Decision for Uncertainty Project Based on Entropy

投资项目呈现越来越强的不确定性和多样性,投资决策面临着对这些不确定性带来的风险的度量和防范。针对投资项目的不确定性风险,传统的NPV法假设项目投产后总是按决策之初的既定程序进行,而未考虑经营者对未来变化的适时调整,存在一定的局限性。基于源于热力学的熵度量系统不确定性的研究思想,并把它应用到不确定性项目投资决策中,根据熵系统的性质特点建立了不确定性项目的投资决策优化评价模型,并对模型的适用范围和特点进行研究,从而使投资决策运用了数学规划的方法并兼顾投资方案的固有信息和决策者本身的经验,更加科学可靠。

With the uncertainty and diversity of investment project, decisionmakers have to cope with the measurement of risk rising and prevention against it from uncertainty. Regarding to the uncertainty risk of investment project, the traditional method of net present value (NPV) shows its limit, for it supposes that the project be able to go on mechanically after it is carried out.