审慎评估人民币汇率水平及其政策

A Cautious Assessment of the RMB Exchange Rate Level and Relevant Policies

考察10年来的汇率变动,从名义、名义有效汇率、实际汇率动态和静态比较等方面均可以说明,人民币汇率走势强于其他主要货币,其币值并未低估。中国贸易顺差和高额外汇储备的形成与人民币低估并无必然联系,而将美日等国的通货紧缩归咎于所谓的人民币低汇率更是缺乏根据。因此,当前我国不应随意人为地改变人民币汇率水平,而是应当完善外汇管理制度和人民币汇率形成机制。

Through an examination of the exchange rate movement in recent ten years and a comparison between nominal effective exchange rate and actual exchange rate, they are shown that the RMB currency is stronger than other major currencies in their trends of exchange rate and its value is not underestimated. China's trade surplus and higher foreign exchange reserves have no necessary connection with RMB's underestimation. Moreover, it is ill founded that the currency deflation in U. S., Japan, etc., is attributable to RMB's lower exchange rate. Consequently, we should not alter the level of RMB exchange rate at random and artificially at present, but should improve our exchange control system and formation mechanisms of RMB exchange rate.