1983年山东菏泽5.9级地震地下流体前兆异常识别与检验性预测

Precursor Anomaly Recognition and Testing Forecast of Ground Fluid Water before Heze M5.9 Earthquake in 1983

对1983-11-07山东菏泽5.9级地震前地下流体前兆异常特征进行了识别与研究,分析了菏泽5.9级地震前地下流体前兆异常的阶段性、层次性和同步性特征,利用震前地下流体高频突变异常频次速率和异常频次累加值的变化,采用地下流体层次跟踪震情预测方法对菏泽5.9级地震长期、中期和短临三个时间尺度的震情进行了检验性预测。

Based on the method of anomaly recognition and mark system for the precursor subject, the characteristics of precursor anomaly of the ground fluid have been identified and studied during the Heze M59 earthquake in 1983 and the features of stages, layer and synchronism of precursor anomaly of ground fluid were analyzed. Using the method of the multilayered prediction on ground fluid anomaly variations, the long term, medium term and short term forecast has been tested for the Heze M5.9 earthquake based on variations of change rate of anomaly frequency and accumulated anomaly frequency of ground fluid before the earthquake.