社区防灾减灾对策的复杂性科学问题

Problems of Complexity Science in the Community Countermeasures for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation

"社区研究"已有约150年的历史,社区的防灾减灾对策是一个综合性的科学问题。充分发挥社区的防灾减灾功能十分必要,确立社区防灾减灾最优对策在中国的现代化建设和可持续发展战略中具有重要意义。利用复杂性科学的理论和模型来处理社区的防灾减灾对策问题,是系统科学或复杂性科学中的一个有意义的发展方向。本文提出并分析了社区防灾减灾对策研究中的4个问题,即如何界定社区防灾减灾应急管理的角色和方向;何为防灾减灾安全社区;如何预警突发性灾难事件;社区防灾减灾系统是如何自组织的。本文引入复杂性科学理论对社区的防灾减灾对策进行了研究,讨论了复杂性科学应用于社区防灾减灾对策的理论框架。

Community Study'has already had a history of about 150 years. Community countermeasure for disaster prevention and mitigation is a integrated problem of science. It is very important to fully mobilize the disaster prevention and mitigation functions of communities. It has a great significance in the strategy of China's modernization and sustainable development to determine the optimal community countermeasures for disaster prevention and mitigation. It is a development direction of significance for system science or Complexity Science to deal with the problems of community countermeasures for disaster prevention and mitigation using the theory and models of Complexity Science. In the present paper,four scientific and technological problems in the study of community countermeasures for disaster prevention and mitigation have been raised and analyzed,that is,how should the role and direction of emergency management of community disaster prevention and mitigation be defined?What is a safe community in disaster prevention and mitigation?How can an abrupt disaster event be warned in advance?How is a community disaster prevention and mitigation system selforganized?The theory of Complexity Science has been introduced to study the community disaster prevention and mitigation. A theoretical framework has been discussed for application of Complexity Science in the community countermeasures for disaster prevention and mitigation. System control countermeasures, system organization countermeasures,sytem decisionmaking countermeasures and system evolution countermeasures are studied and discussed.