部队卫生经费资源配置标准预测

Forecasting allocation standard of primary military health fund resource

目的:预测某区域2003年度卫生经费的配置标准。方法:应用灰色系统中单序列一阶段性微分模型[灰色模型(gray model,GM)](1.1)及动态数列方法对部队卫生经费列支中的4项主要科目(医疗、防疫、药材和业务管理)及其余科目进行预测分析。结果:2003年度预测各级卫生机构卫生经费4项主要保障额(基础标准),防疫费较上一年有所减少(分别减少××元、××元,全区域减少××元),某建制单位业务费减少××元,其余三项各单位均有不同程度的增加;各级卫生机构卫生经费其条科目的保障额(补充标准)较2002年度有不同程度的增长。结论:部队卫生经费的投入力度不断加大,呈逐年上升趋势,但供需矛盾仍然存在;部队卫生经费4项重点列支科目保障良好,但分配比例仍不够合理。

Objective:To forecast the allocation standard of primary military health fund resource(PMHFR) in a region in 2003. Methods: The 4 main subjects(medical treatment,epidemic prevention,drugs,and management) and other subjects of expenditure of the PMHFR were analyzed with Gray Model(1. 1) and Dynamic Series. Results: The 4 main subjects of health institution and the anti-epidemic expenditure decreased compared with those of last year. The management expenses of a unit decreased; the other 3 items in different institution increased,and the value of other subjects in different levels of health institution increased compared with those of 2002. Conclusion: PMHFR increases progressively, but the contradiction between the supply and the demand still exists. Four major subjects expenditure of PMHFR functions well, but the proportion of allocation is still irrational.