提高气候预测准确率的有效途径

Developmental Direction of Drought Climatic Prediction in Northwest China

文中给出了目前我国干旱气候预测的水平和使用的主要方法,指出数值模式的预测方法不仅具有明确坚实的物理基础,而且具有客观、定量的优点,是气候预测方法的一个新的发展方向。20世纪90年代以来,高分辨率的区域气候模式的发展为区域气候的模拟和预测研究带来了新的希望。发展适合西北地区的高分辨率区域气候模式,是目前西北地区气候规律及其预测研究迫切需要解决的科学问题。

In this paper, the level and the main methods were given about the drought climatic prediction in China at present, it was pointed out that the method of numerical model's prediction would be more important developmental direction of climate prediction in the future, because the method not only has explicit physical basic, but also has excellences of objectivity and quantification. Development of high resolution regional climate model provide many new ideas and methods for simulation and prediction of regional climate from 1990's of last century. High resolution regional climate model fitting to Northwest China urgently require to develop for the studies of drought climatic changing regulation and prediction at this times.