东北地区玉米热量指数的预测模型研究

FORECASTING MODELS OF HEAT INDEX FOR CORN IN NORTHEAST CHINA

利用 1 961～ 2 0 0 0年逐月气温资料计算了东北地区分省和全区玉米的热量指数。通过对热量指数和大气环流资料的统计分析 ,建立了 6个预测玉米热量指数的模型 ,各模型都能较好地预测东北地区各省及全区的玉米生长发育期间的热量状况。检验结果可以看出 ,所有模型的准确率较高 ,且稳定性较好 ,6个模型预测玉米热量指数的平均相对误差都在 7%以下 ,说明了各模型都具有较好的预测能力。其中辽宁省的相对误差最小 ,平均在 2 %以下 ,预测效果最好 ,黑龙江省的平均误差最大 ,也都在 4.5 %～ 7%。

Using the mean monthly air temperature from 1961 to 2000, the corn heat indexes in 3 provinces and whole Northeast China are calculated. Based on the statistic analysis between heat index and atmospheric circulation data, 6 models of forecasting availably the corn heat index are set up. Each model can be used to forecast heat status in the growth and development period of corn in each province and whole Northeast China. Test shows that the accuracy of all models is higher and the stability is preferable. The mean relative error of 6 models is lower than 7%. These models show the better forecasting ability. In which, the least relative error is in Liaoning province, the mean value is lower than 2%, and the forecast effect is best. The greatest relative error is in Heilongjiang province, the mean value is from 4.5% to 7%.