柑桔增减产生态环境模式研究

AN INITIAL STUDY OF THE CITRUS HARVEST-ECOLOGY MODEL ASSOCIATED WITH ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS

本文依据影响柑桔产量的主要生态环境因素和近年在中亚热带红壤桔园的定点试验资料,运用统计模拟分别建立子模式然后合成的方法,研究了柑桔增减产定量描述的生态环境模式。初步建立了模拟柑桔冬季落叶率、晚春初夏落花落果率和夏秋单果重的3个子模式,以及模拟柑桔平均单株产量的合成模式。应用所建的模式模拟了不同生境小区的柑桔株产量和近年金华市柑桔逐年平均株产量。模拟结果表明模式有一定可靠性,可用来预测区域柑桔平均产量或常规桔园的产量,并可适时指导桔农针对生态环境灾害采取减灾增产措施,

Considering the main factors ofecological environment affecting citrus yield, based on the data from past three years observation of Wenzhou Citrus orchard in Kaihua village as a low hill-red soil ecological environment in the middle of the subtropical monson region, the statistical method was used to simulate the citrus harvest. The main factors of ecological environment associated with citrus yields in several key periods were as follow: cold injury leading to leaves drop in early or middle winter, anomalous high temperature to blame for blossoms or prematurea drop in May, and hot-dry weather affecting young citrus fruits in middle summer. Then, three sub-models to simulate the leaves drop in winter, the blossoms or prematures drop during late spring to early summer and the weigh per citurs fruit in summer-autumn were set up. A citrus yields-ecology model related to environmental disasters was then established. By using these models, the citrus yields of different habitat plots on gentle slope were simulated in 1986-1988 years. As a result, the difference in citrus yields between both test plots was obvious. The average yields per citrus tree of fall orchards in Jinhua in past 34 years were also simulated and those in 1990 and 1991 years were predicted.