上海市区新婚夫妇生育计划及其变化分析

Analysis of Newlyweds' Fertility Plan and Its' Shift in Shanghai Municipality

本文通过对上海市区7,872对新婚夫妇的前瞻性调查,分析新婚夫妇在结婚登记和开始正常性生活时的生育计划及其变化的决定因素。结果显示,半数以上的夫妇于结婚登记一个月以后才开始正常性生活,在结婚登记时,有43.4%夫妇表示婚后不打算避孕,56.6%表示将使用避孕以推迟受孕时间。到正常性生活开始时,有25.5%的夫妇改变了原来的生育计划,15.2%提前了受孕时间,10.3%推迟了受孕时间。多因素Logistic回归分析结果表明,结婚登记与开始正常性生活间隔时间较长、夫妇初婚年龄较轻及妻子的避孕知识较贫乏、则夫妇容易改变生育计划。妻子避孕知识较丰富、夫妇初婚年龄较大、丈夫有兄弟、妻子是脑力劳动者、婚前接受过正规性教育及没有婚前性行为的夫妇,容易推迟其生育计划。

Based on the follow-up interview of 7,872 newly married couples in Shanghai Municipality, this paper analyzes the newlyweds' fertility plan at the time of marriage registration and of initiating regular married life, and the determinants of its' shift. The results show that more than half of those couples started their regular married life at least one month after their marriage registration, At the time of marriage registration, 43.4% of the couples did not plan to use contraception after their regular married life and another 56.6% of the couples would use contraception to defer their time of conceiving a baby. At the time of initiating regular married life, 25.5% of those couples had changed their former fertility plan, 15.27% of them advancing their time of conceiving a baby, while 10.3% of them deferring theirs. The multiple logistic regression model indicates that the longer the duration from the marriage registration to the initiatinn of regular married life, the younger the age at marriage, or the poorer the wife's contraceptive knowledge, the more likely is the change of the fertility plan. On the other hand, couples of the following categories are more likely to defer their time of conceiving a baby: wife's contraceptive knowledge is more substantial, couple's age at marriage is older, husband has a brother, wife's occupation is mental labour, couple has received the premarital sexual education program, and there is no premarital sexual intercourse.