广州市生态可持续发展水平对比评价

Evaluation on the ecological sustainable development level of Guangzhou City

基于城市自然 -经济 -社会复合生态系统原理 ,应用层次分析法、综合指数法 ,建立城市生态可持续发展水平测度指标体系 ,并将广州市与北京、上海、深圳市进行对比评价 ,最后得出各城市生态化水平、生态可持续发展水平及发展特点等结论。广州现状自然生态化水平、生态可持续发展水平低于深圳、略低于北京 ,高于上海 ,在国内大城市中属良好水平 ;经济生态指数低于深圳、略低于上海 ,高于北京 ,在国内大城市中也属良好水平 ;社会生态指数在四城市中最低。指标及其权重的选定考虑了各指标的层次性、代表性 ,也考虑到指标数据资料易统计。

Based on the urban nature-economy-society complex ecosystem theory, we set up the evaluating indicator system of urban ecological sustainable development level, applying the methods of Analytic Hierarchy Proce ss (AHP) and synthetic index(weighted means). By contrasting the indices of Gu angzhou with those of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, we make up the conclusion about their natural ecological sustainable development level, urban compound eco system sustainable development level and development characteristic. Choosing of the indicators and determination of their weights is based on the representativ e-ness and hierarchy, with also attention to their data's acquisitiveness, prec iseness and comparability. \;The calculation method of synthetic indices is as follow,\; (1) calculation formula of comprehensire indicators is,\;(a) V i=(Z i/Z oi )\+α (when Z i is the positive function indic ator)\;(b) V i=(Z oi /Z i)\+α (when Z i is the negative function indica tor) \; V i — the calculated number of i indicator; Z i — the statistic s number of i indicator; Z oi — the standard number of i indic ator; α represent the fuzzy degree(α=1~2), α=1 is chosen general ly in this paper.Formula B is applicable to the circumstance when smaller indica tor means better status (ie. the negative function indicator).\;(2) The synthetic index of an upper level indicator is obtained by multiplying t he next class indices by their weights and making the sum. \;The calculation formula is: C\-i=∑nj=1|W\-\{ij\}V\-\{ij\}|;\;C i — the synthetic index of some class indicator (i); \;V ij — the index of its second class indicators (j); W ij — the weight of its second class indicators (j). The methods of AHP, IOM, Delphi, FIM are applied to determine the indicators' we ights. According to the relevant research result of the domestic and internation al eco-city standard, the indicators' standards are determined. Some standards are adjusted or modified according to the concrete circumstances. The synthetic index of each city in this paper is shown in the table 1. At present, the natural ecological development level and urban complex ecosystem sustainable development level of Guangzhou city are good among domestic big cit ies. Its indices are lower than those of Shenzhen, slightly lower than Beijing a nd higher than Shanghai. The economic ecological development level of Guangzhou city is also good among domestic big cities, and its index is lower than that of Shenzhen, slightly lower than Shanghai and higher than Beijing. Its social ecol ogical index is the lowest among the four cities. The indicators of the treatmen t rate of city domestic sewage, the number of doctors per 10 000 persons, the pr oportion of Research and Development expenses to GDP of Guangzhou city are at th e lowest level among the four cities. Its indicator of the natural growth rate o f population is higher than that of Beijing and Shanghai.