2001～2010年我国肺结核病患病预测的研究

Forecast about number of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis 2001～2010

目的 预测今后我国肺结核病的患病人数。方法 根据历次流行病学调查数据 ,建立数学模型 ,以 2 0 0 0年全国结核病流行病学抽样调查资料为预测基线 ,代入模型 ,预测我国 2 0 0 1～ 2 0 10年 10年间肺结核病的患病人数。结果 ( 1)若采用肺结核患者发现率ρ为 0 2 6 1,则 2 0 10年全国肺结核病患病人数将比 2 0 0 0年略有增加 ;( 2 )若采用 ρ为 0 30 ,全国肺结核病患者数至 2 0 10年有所减少 ;( 3)若干预措施将患者发现率控制在 0 35水平 ,2 0 0 1～ 2 0 10年间肺结核病的患病人数下降与全国规划目标在今后 10年降低 5 0 %相接近。结论 只有肺结核患者发现率达到 0 35时 ,全国结核病控制规划的目标才可能实现。

Objective To forecast the number of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in 2010. Methods A mathematical model was established based on the nationwide epidemiological survey on tuberculosis conducted in 2000 so as to forecast the numbers of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in 2000s. Results (1) The number of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis would be a little more than that in 2000, with the pulmonary tuberculosis case detection rate ρ of 0.26 being adopted. (2) The number of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis would be smaller than that in 2000, with the pulmonary tuberculosis case detection rate ρ of 0.30 being adopted. (3) If the current intervention strategy manages to keep the pulmonary tuberculosis case detection rate at the level of 0.35, the decline in number of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis will approach the goal set by the national program that the number of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis be decreased by 50%. Conclusion The goal set by the national program can be achieved only when the pulmonary tuberculosis case detection rate reaches 0.35.