巴以冲突:主要影响因素及预测分析

Palestine-Israel Conflicts: Main Effecting Factors and Predictive Analysis

本文从多种纷乱复杂的矛盾中提取对巴以冲突有重大影响的 7个最重要因素(联合国有关决议、领导机构、主要对抗方式、军力对比、外交与国际环境、社会发展状况、民众意愿等要素 )进行系统研究 ,并根据诸多因素的互动关系对巴以冲突的未来发展态势做出预测分析。虽然美国已经公布所谓“路线图” ,但和平还不是就能“按图索骥”的。鉴于巴以边界划分、水资源分配、耶路撒冷地位、难民回归等一系列涉及国家利益的棘手问题都是无法回避的 ,巴以问题的最终解决可能会分几步走 。

The article intends to make a systematic study of Palestine-Israel conflicts using seven most important effecting factors abstracted from various complicated contradictions, i.e. UN relevant resolutions, leadership, main confronting modes, balance of military power, diplomacy and international environment, social development status and public opinion. Based on the interactions among these factors, the article also makes a predictive analysis about the tendencies of the conflict. Although the United States has publicized the so-called Road Map, peace cannot be handled in a mechanical way. Given a series of sticky and inevitable problems relating to national interests, such as demarcation between Palestine and Israel, allocation of water resources, status of the Jerusalem and the repatriation of the refugees, the final settlement of the Palestine-Israel problem will experience several stages, and which will be a long period of struggles.