期权理论在投资决策中的应用研究

Application of Option Theory in the Investment Decision-making

传统的投资决策方法-净现值法,建立在投资是可逆的和不可推迟的条件上,它忽视了投资时间选择的价值,因而存在一定的局限性。应用期权理论进行投资决策分析,给以NPV为基本方法的决策研究提供了一种新的思路。期权理论提供了分析及测定不可逆投资项目中不确定性的方法,运用该方法进行投资决策,可提高决策的科学性和准确性。

The traditional investment decisionmaking methodnet present value(NPV)is established on the premise that investment decision can be reversed and incapable of being delayed.NPV method ignores the value of timing and it has some shortages.Applying option pricing theory to analyze investment decision provides a new train of thought.Option theory offers a method to analyze irreversibility,uncertainty and timing of investment decision and it can improve decision's accurateness. An example was given to compare difference between option method and NPV in the investment decisionmaking.