中国炼焦煤供需现状及其发展趋势

Supply & Demand Situation and Tendency of China’s Coking Coal Market

近年来,国际炼焦煤市场供需两旺,价格飙升。作为世界最大的炼焦煤生产国和消费国,中国的炼焦煤及其焦炭产品市场更是一片火热。如何看待目前和未来一个时期中国炼焦煤市场的供需关系?影响这一关系的主要因素有哪些?探讨这些问题无论对于国家宏观调控还是企业微观运行决策都有十分重要的现实意义。认为,从2001年到2010年,中国的炼焦煤供需呈较快的增长态势且增速前高后低,保持供需基本平衡、局部供应偏紧,价格高位的发展态势。其主要影响因素是国内大中型煤矿的生产能力增速和非法煤矿产量的减速以及钢铁工业的发展速度等。

To be the biggest coking coal producer and consumer in the world, China has have a much more prosperous coke & coking coal market in line with a flourishing global market and dramatically increasing price in recent years. As for discussion of these issues, it is of great significance for China to make the macro adjustment and control, as well as for enterprises to make the micro operation decision, such as what is the supply and demand relations of China's coking coal market at present and in the future, and what are the most influential factors? During 2001 to 2010, the supply and demand situation of China's coking coal market will keep growing at a speed of maintaining fast at the beginning while turning to a more slowly later. On the whole, it will get a stable situation in the supply and demand market, while still be in shortage of supply in some parts of China. Meanwhile, the price will be kept at a high level. The key elements influencing the market are stemmed from increase in the production capacity of large and middle coal mines, decrease in the yield of illegal coal mines, as well as be given the spur by rapidly growth of steel & iron industry.