近50年来降水变化和人类活动对黄河入海径流通量的影响

Influence of precipitation and human activities on water fluxes from the Yellow River into the sea in the past 50 years

以黄河流域的降水、实测径流量、天然径流量、净引水量以及上中游流域的水土保持措施面积等资料为基础,运用经验统计分析法,研究了近50年来黄河入海径流通量的变化及其与降水和人类活动的关系。结果表明,不同的径流来源区降水的变化对入海径流通量的影响是不同的。引水所形成的侧支循环强度的急剧增大,使入海径流通量大幅度下降。上中游大规模水土保持生效后,这一地区的天然年径流有所减少,也导致入海径流通量的减少,入海径流通量与历年梯田、造林、种草面积之间具有一定的负相关。以入海径流通量作为因变量,以净引水量、流域年降水量和上中游梯田、林草面积作为自变量,建立了多元回归方程。

Since the 1970s, the water fluxes from the Yellow River into the sea have declined significantly. The formative cause for this was dealt with in this study. Based on the data of precipitation, measured and natural runoff, water diversion and the areas of erosion control measures over the drainage, the relationship between the water fluxes and the influence of changing precipitation and human activities were studied. The Yellow River basin can be divided into some different water source areas. The change in precipitation over different runoff source areas has different effect on the water flux. The water diversion from the river forms a lateral branch water cycle system, which increased intensively and resulted in significant decline in the water flux. Since the 1960s, the erosion control measures have been practiced over the drainage basin, leading to a decrease in the water flux into the sea. A multiple regression equation was established for estimating the change in water fluxes caused by the changes in precipitation, water diversion and erosion control measures.