俄罗斯中期经济发展走势分析

AN ANALYSIS OF RUSSIA'S MIDDLE-TERM ECONOMIC DEVELOPING TENDENCY

1999年以来,俄罗斯经济呈现出恢复性增长趋势。在综合考虑俄国内外诸种因素的情况下,初步预测结果为:2003年俄GDP实际增长可能达到5%以上;2004年工业生产增长速度同比可能达到4.0%～4.5%;2005年农产品年均增长速度将在3%～5%之间;2004年俄出口同比将增长到1015亿～1020亿美元,进口630亿～635亿美元;2004年吸引外资将上升到150亿～170亿美元;卢布与美元的比率将达到36～37卢布兑1美元;2004年俄居民名义货币收入将同比增加16%～18%。

Since 1999,Russian economy has shown a tendency to increase recoverying.Taking everything in Russia into consideration,the result of initial forecast is that Russia's GDP in 2003 will rise by over five per cent,the growing speed of its industrial production in 2004 will be 104.0%-104.5% compared with the last year;the average increase speed of its agricultural products in 2005 will be 3%-5% annually;its export volume in 2004 will rise by  101.5 billions-102.0 billions compared with the last year and import volume will be 63 billions- 63.5 billions;investments from abroad in 2004 will rise up to 15 billions-17 billions;rate of exchange between rubles and U.S.dollars will be Rbs 36-37 to 1 dollar;its residents' titular money income will increase by 16%-18% compared with the last year.