珠江三角洲大系统洪水模拟分析及防洪对策探讨

Large scale system simulation for flood and anti-flood counter measures in Pearl River delta

本文在综合分析了珠江三角洲水系构成和水动力条件、洪水数值预报研究现状和既往研究成果的基础上 ,开发了涵盖三角洲河网及八大口门全水域的河口大系统水动力模型。模型将三角洲河网、八大入海口门、伶仃洋和黄茅海海湾作为一个整体 ,模拟其在径流和潮汐共同作用下复杂河网区各河道的水位、流量 ,河汊的分流比 ,口门的泄量分配比及海湾流态。模型用 1999年 7月最新的地形和水文同步资料进行了模型的大规模率定和验证。并计算分析了全三角洲水域的洪水情势 ,研究了三角洲目前受洪水威胁的主要问题所在 ,探讨了问题的成因和治理对策。

A large scaled simulation system for modeling the flood in Pearl River delta is established.The whole river networks,all river mouths of the delta and the sea bay are included in the system.The water levels,discharges of the rivers in the complicated networks,the discharge ratios of river forks,the discharge allocations of river mouths as well as the flow regimes in the sea bays under the mutual action of river runoff and tide are simulated.The model is calibrated and verified by the newest topographic and hydrological data obtained in 1999.According to the simulation results,countermeasures for flood prevention are proposed.