基于风险分析的大坝设计洪水标准研究

Study on the criteria for design flood of dam based on risk analysis

在分析和评价传统大坝设计洪水标准的基础上,详细探讨了基于风险分析确定大坝防洪安全标准和设计洪水标准的方法,建立了可接受风险水平约束下的大坝防洪安全标准的风险决策模型,初步解决了风险分析中生命损失不宜货币量化的问题。建议我国把基于风险分析的设计洪水标准作为防洪标准规范的使用参考。

The conventional guidelines for the flood safety of dam were reviewed. A new method for the selection of criteria for flood safety and design flood, based on risk analysis, was discussed in detail. A risk decision model of criteria for the flood safety of dam was developed under the condition of the constraint that the risk should less than the acceptable risk level. The problem that it was not ethical to measure the value of the person by money could be solved in some degree by introducing the constraint to the model. It is suggested that the criteria based on risk analysis should be used as reference for flood safety guideline.