西南地区前兆观测异常特征和地震短期预测方法研究

Precursor anomaly characteristics and short-term earthquake prediction in the southwest region of China

通过对西南地区1970～2001年39组52次6级以上地震及四川部分5级以上地震震例资料的剖析,进一步研究西南地区各类前兆中、短期异常判据和指标;研究西南地区强震孕育前兆异常由中期向短期(临震)过渡、演化的标志和判据并作物理解释;并进行了西南地区前兆短期预测方法及强震短期预测时、空、强指标和判据的研究和西南地区地下流体新观测方法及灵敏测项的研究。

The statistical relationship between the precursor data of different observation items and the seismic events that include 52 earthquakes,divided into 39 groups,with magnitude over M60 occurred in the southwest region of China and all seismic events with magnitude over M50 occurred in Sichuan region from 1970 to 2001 is studied.The change patterns of precursor data and the judging indexes before most of earthquakes for medium-to-short-term earthquake prediction in southwest region of China and the change procedures are further studied.We try to give the physical explanation for these changes of precursor data and put forward some new observation methods to research the hydrochemistry of ground water.