非线性市场需求下机组优化出力的自适应动态古诺模型

ADAPTIVE DYNAMIC COURNOT MODEL OF OPTIMIZING GENERATING UNITS' POWER OUTPUT UNDER NONLINEAR MARKET DEMAND

该文运用博奕论及动态经济学方法首先给出了非线性反需求函数下电厂机组出力的静态古诺模型及古诺均衡的求解方法;然后引入机组自适应期望出力的概念,建立了求取下一生产周期电厂机组最佳出力的非线性自适应动态古诺模型。两种方法都反应了电厂追求利润最大化的博弈行为,因此能够作为电厂机组出力的优化决策工具。仿真结果表明自适应动态古诺模型是有效、可行的,而且其稳定值趋于古诺均衡。

A static Cournot model under the condition of nonlinear reverse demand and the method to solve its Cournot equilibrium for power outputs of generating units are presented by using the game theory. Then a concept of an adaptive expected power output is introduced, and with this concept a nonlinear and adaptive dynamic Cournot model that optimizes power output for a generation company in the next period time is established by using the method of dynamic economics. All two models reflect profit-maximizing behavior of generation companies, so it can be used as a decision-making tool for optimizing their power outputs. The simulation results show that this adaptive dynamic Cournot model is effective and feasible, and its stable values approximate to the Cournot equilibrium.