整合技术预见与技术评估的科技发展战略

Integrating Technology Foresight and Technology Assessment in S&T Development Strategy

本文对技术预见的社会背景及主体、类别进行了分析 ,认为技术预见活动的主体不同 ,技术预见的类型及所期待的收益也将不同。技术预见和技术评估的整合过程作为科技战略规划和政策的有效工具之一正在得到普遍的接受 ,本文认为应该将TF、TA的整合纳入创新体系建设 (依靠技术创新带动经济增长 ) 。

The types and proceeds of technology foresight will have differences according to the principal lead ship of the foresight activity. There has been a wider recognition that integrated technology foresight and assessment process is a useful aid to the planning and formulation of science and technology. Technology foresight and technology assessment should be integrated so as to get comprehensive understanding of the emerging technologies and their social impacts. Such an integrated strategic planning methodology should be explored to proceed the complex innovation system in industrial strategy development and S&T policymaking.