黑龙江经济发展的近期预测模型

Recently Prediction Model of Economic Development of Heilongjiang

从大量的统计数据入手,研究黑龙江省的经济总量及各主要经济变量间的因果关系。利用计量经济学的方法和统计外推的思想,在现有经济政策不变的前提下对黑龙江省未来几年的经济状况做了定量的估计和预测。具体包括人均经济总量的趋势和居民家庭收入的变化规律及其模型;从业人员和人口自然增长率对经济发展的影响及其模型;投资的来源收益的分析,以及投资对经济的贡献程度;产业结构的变化规律和趋向;黑龙江省区域经济总量的近期预测模型和实证的结果。

This text proceed with a large amount of statistics,total supply and demand to study Heilongjiang Province and each causality of main economic variable.And utilize the thought that economics method and statistics extrapolate,Economic situation in the following several years such as Heilongjiang Province make quantitative estimation and prediction base on the premise that the existing economic policy does not change. Concrete to include per capita trend and resident change law and its model of family income of total supply and demand;Impact on economic developmint of employees and rate of natural growth and model;The source of investment and analysis of the income,and make the investment to the economic contribution degree;Change law and tending of the industrial structure;Heilongjiang Province rigional total supply and demand predict model and result of real example recently.