北京市未来50年户籍人口变动趋势预测

The forecast of Beijing registered permanent resident in the next 50 years

本文以第五次人口普查资料为基础 ,结合“北京市个人生育意愿调查”的研究结果 ,对北京市未来 5 0年户籍人口的变动趋势进行了预测分析。研究表明 :北京市户籍人口在未来若干年会保持上升趋势 ,2 0 35年左右达到高峰 ;北京市户籍人口老龄化趋势明显 ;

Based on the result of the Fifth National Census and the Survey of Beijing Personal Fertility Inclination in 2002, this paper studies the transformation trend of Beijing registered permanent resident in the next 50 years. The research shows the population will keep increasing in a number of years and reaches the top in 2035 and there will be serious aged population problem in Beijing's future. It is beneficial to amend the population structure through heightening felicitously the total fertility rate of Beijing registered resident.