从国际收支成长理论析人民币汇率调控

Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Adjustment according to the Balance of Payment Growth

人民币的升值压力源于我国持续的国际收支顺差。从国际收支成长理论来看 ,我国的国际收支顺差是结构性的 ,也即人民币升值压力并非是短期的。为此 ,如果保持汇率不变 ,政府将不得不继续大力干预外汇市场 ;如果为平衡国际收支而大幅放松外汇管理或调整货币金融和财政政策 ,其对经济的负面影响可能比调整人民币汇率更大。所以 ,合理的对策应是一方面渐进地放松外汇管理 。

The continued balance of payments surplus bring us appreciation pressure of RMB. According to the theory of balance of payments growth, I believe the balance of payments surplus is structural, which means the appreciation pressure of RMB is not a short term problem. So the government has to give a further strong interference in foreign exchange market, if fixed exchange rate is kept. To release exchange control by a big margin or to adjust monetary and financial policy for balance of payments equilibrium may affect our economy much more deeply than to adjust exchange rate of RMB. So I think the feasible measure is to release exchange control step by step, and to allow some fluctuation in the exchange rate of RMB.