中国资本外逃规模估测的实证研究

Empirical Study of Estimation to the Scale of China's Capital Flight

重新界定资本外逃的范畴,对资本外逃的主要测算方法进行分析和评价。在此基础上,使用中国的特别信息和统计数据对世界银行基本模型进行修正。新测算模型以我国历年的国际收支平衡表为基础,对资金来源、正常资本流出、居民外币资产、错误与遗漏项下的正常统计误差及进出口高报、低报所产生的资本外逃进行全面估测。测算结果表明,1988-2002年中国的资本外逃总额达到1913.6亿美元,年均127亿美元,且资本外逃呈现出一定的波动性和阶段性。

This paper provides a new definition of capital flight, and makes a critical evaluation and analysis of main estimation methods. Then the paper modifies the basic model used by the World Bank using China's specific information and data. The new estimation model is based on the Balance of Payment. We fully analyze and adjust five parts such as capital resources, normal usages of capital, normal statistic error, foreign assets of residents, and capital flight through mis-invoicing. The estimation result shows that the total flight capital is 191.36 billion dollars during the 1988-2002 period, averaging 12.7 billion dollars per year. Capital flight presents a nature of stages and fluctuations.