基于可靠性理论的堤防安全评估系统的开发

Development of Safety Evaluation System of Flood Levee Based on Probability Theory

针对防汛工作的特殊性及各类信息处理方式、数据种类和应用特点,依据现行堤防设计和安全管理规范[1,2],采用常规定值安全系数法和可靠性方法,以VisualBasic作为开发语言,基于数据库后台支持,开发出图形化界面的堤防安全评估系统.以下主要介绍安全评估模型的建立、系统开发中考虑的问题及系统主要功能.

According to the process of flood protection, the models of safety evaluation on sliding stability and seepage stability have been developed by using the traditional deterministic method and probabilistic method. The main functions of dataset inquiry and graph display have been described in detail. The dataset structure, computable condition and standard of clarification of safety grade were also introduced. Taking some dike sections of a city as an example, the evaluation on the whole dike section has been carried out. The developing of this system is helpful to realize the transition from the conventional empirical method to risk assessment method for forecasting potential dangers of flood levee.