鲁北沿海强对流天气多发的成因及临近预报

Analysis and Nowcasting of Frequent and Severe Convections in Coastal North of Shandong Province

潍坊北部系海陆交界处 ,由于地理因素 ,经常形成海陆风锋 ,当海陆风锋与其他天气系统叠加 ,会使系统加强 ,天气剧烈 ,在夏季是鲁北强对流天气多发的重要原因。一次冷锋过程分析说明与海陆风锋叠加能形成强锋区 ,锋区上的D、ζ有利于上升运动 ,与之对应的地面高能区为系统提供了能源。通过对鲁北 2 1个强对流天气个例研究 ,建立了冰雹云移动路径的临近预报方程。

Sea breeze fronts always form in the coastal northern Weifang, Shandong Province. The superposition of the sea breeze fronts and mesosystem could make the system stronger. This is an important reason that in northern Shandong province severe convection appears frequently. An analysis of a cold front process indicates that the superposition is conductive to form a stronger wind area. The D, ζ over the front could accelerate the upward vertical movement. The relevant high energy areas near the surface provided the energy. A nowcasting equation of the track is developed by analyzing 21 severe convection events.