供应链的系统运作模式分析与建模——基于复杂自适应系统范式的研究

Analysis and Modeling of Operation Mode of Supply Chain——Research Based on CAS Paradigm

整体运作环境的变化使得传统的方法已经无法合理解决当今供应链管理中出现的复杂问题 .应用复杂性科学的理论 ,本文以复杂自适应系统 (Complexity Adaptive System,CAS)范式作为分析方法 ,系统性诠释了供应链的整体运作模式 .文中首先以“适应性造就复杂性”的思想为指导 ,认为供应链是一个 (CAS) ,并建立了相应的概念模型 ,然后基于此模型 ,探讨了供应链管理的策略性原则 .文章最后在桑塔费研究所开发的智能仿真平台—— SWARM的基础上 ,建立了一个基于 Multi-Agent的供应链仿真模型 .研究表明该范式能够更好的分析与描述供应链这一复杂系统发生、创新。

The conventional methods could not reasonably handle complex problem occurred in supply chain management because of the change of its operation environment. In this paper, complex adaptive system paradigm is used to interpret and analyze the operation mode of supply chain. Under the idea of 'adaptation build complexity', a conceptual framework is developed to indicate supply chain as one CAS firstly. Based on the model, some supply chain guiding principles are proposed. At last, a multi-agent simulation model based on SFI's intelligent simulation platform-SWARM is introduced. The result shows the method could better describe and analyze the essence of the appearance, innovation, adaptation, learning behaviors of supply chain.