经济系统风险模型及建模方法探讨

A Method in Modeling Risk model in Economic System

从经济系统的系统目标出发 ,针对经济系统中经济活动事件的价值体现过程 ,对经济系统风险进行定义 ,提出风险因子的概念 ,并建立一种包含两层结构的经济系统风险模型 .通过分析风险值与风险事件关系 ,建立顶层风险模型 ;分析风险因素与风险因子关系 ,建立底层模型 ;顶层模型和底层模型由风险因素与风险事件的关系进行连接 。

According to the target of economic system, we analyze the process of value realization for the economic activities in an economic system. Then we provide definition of 'risk' in such economic systems, and analyze the impact of its components: 'risk events', 'risk factors', and 'risk genes.' Based on the relations of risk potential and risk events, we develop the high-level risk model. Furthermore, based on the relation of 'risk factors' and 'risk genes', we develop the model for analyzing low-level risk in an economic system. The high-and low-level models are coordinated by the interaction of risk events and risk factors. With this model, the risk analysis can deal with large amount of information of different levels, while focusing on particular concerns at the same time.