项目评估中的风险分析:应用和主要问题被引量：10

Risk Analysis in Project Appraisal: Application and Main Issues

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摘要本文旨在研究项目风险评估的方法及应用问题。首先强调了风险分析在项目评估中的重要性,给出了风险分析应用中(包括投资决策标准和风险的各种度量)的主要问题。进一步地,还对运用风险分析方法所得的结论进行了评述。并还讨论了风险分析所涉及的一些主要问题,如概率分布的选择以及确定风险变量间的相关性。本文提供了一个基础设施项目的案例,以说明风险分析的应用。最后,对项目评估中风险分析的用途及局限做出了一些结论。 This paper was prepared for the purpose of introducing the methodology and application of the Monte Carlo simulation technique in assessing project risk. The paper highlights the importance of risk analysis in project appraisal and presents the major steps in the application of risk analysis. The paper further examines the interpretation of the results generated by a risk analysis application including investment decision criteria and various measures of risk. Major issues involved in risk analysis such as selection of probability distribution and setting correlation for risk variables are also discussed. A case study of an infrastructure project is provided to illustrate the application of risk analysis. The paper finally draws some conclusions regarding the usefulness and limitations of risk analysis in project appraisal.

作者林伯强

机构地区亚洲开发银行

出处《金融研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2003年第11期49-63,共15页 Journal of Financial Research

关键词风险分析蒙特卡洛模拟法相关性预期值 risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, correlation, the expected value

分类号 F062.4 [经济管理—政治经济学]

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