宏观经济周期的微观视角:县域金融案例研究

Macroeconomic Cycle through Microeconomic Analysis: A Case Study of County-level Finance

本文就山西省朔州市的五个县域金融作个案研究,从微观角度分析经济周期问题。研究证实,就欠发达地区的县域金融而言,近年来的持续紧缩是一个基本趋势;这一趋势体现在国有商业银行、邮政储蓄、政策性金融和农村信用社各机构类型上。紧缩的根源是经济结构调整、金融体制改革、信贷有效需求不足和特定政策安排等多方面。文章的基本结论是,县域金融的紧缩周期是长期性的,这一因素应该成为宏观政策制定的基本参考变量之一。

This paper studies the county - level credit market in Shuozhou City, Shanxi Province to show the economic cycle through microeconomic analysis. Empirically, it is revealed that shrinkage is the basic trend for county - level finance including state - owned commercial banks, postal savings, policy banks and rural credit cooperatives. The causes for county - level financial recession are structural adjustment, financial reform, inadequate financial demand and specific policy arrangement . The conclusion is that this trend is a long term factor which should be considered by policymakers.