战争模拟:复杂性的问题与思考

War Game and Simulation: Issues of the Complexity and Consideration

战争系统是典型的复杂巨系统之一,这给战争模拟带来了许多难以解决的问题。本文首先分析了信息化战争模拟的新需求,然后根据长期从事战争模拟研究工作的实践,就战争问题分解与求解、模型颗粒度与聚合解聚、实体能力与损耗计算,以及计算复杂性等主要的复杂性问题进行了讨论。并指出,战争模拟的复杂性主要原因取决于参数的不确定性、系统的适应性和层次涌现性,最后依此给出了关于战争模拟过程中需要注意的几个问题。

As a war system is a typical complex giant system, war game and simulation has to face lots of difficult issues. In this paper, new requirements of war game and simulation in information age are analyzed first. Then basic issues in war game and simulation, such as problem decomposition and resolving, model granularity, model aggregation and dis-aggregation, entities effectiveness and attrition computing, computing complexity, etc, are discussed. The main reasons of war game and simulation complexity are explained, such as parameter uncertainty, system adaptability, and hierarchy emergence. At last, some issues that need to pay special attention in the process of war game and simulation are presented.