对新经济的理性思考

Rational Thinking Over the New Economy

关于新经济的争论 ,主要集中在三个方面 :新经济能否保持长期增长的趋势、经济周期是否已经消失及经济增长的源泉何在。传统经济学家把新经济看作是旧经济在新环境中的延伸 ,否认出现了超越原有经济的新规律。新经济的支持者则认为 ,当前经济正在发生根本性的变化和转型。因此 ,与传统经济相联系的经济现象、经济特征、经济概念和经济理论必然发生变化。该文对某些新经济现象做出了解释 ,进而得出结论 :全面认同新经济还为时过早 ,应该在扎实的实证检验基础上 ,冷静、客观地分析新经济。

The argument about the new economy now focuses on three aspects: whether the new economy can maintain the trend of long-run growth,whether business cycle has disappeared,and where the sources of economic growth lie. Traditional economists view the new economy as the extension of the old economy in new environment,denying the emerging of new disciplinarian exceeding the old economy. Supporters of the new economy consider that fundamental changes and transition are taking place in current economy,so the changes in economic phenomena,characteristics,concepts and theories relating to the old economy will surely follow. The paper explains some phenomena of the new economy and draws the conclusion that it is too early to identify completely with the new economy and that new economy should be calmly and impersonally analyzed on the basis of solid positive studies.