“人民币升值论”剖析

Analysis of RMB Revaluation

本文介绍了2003年人民币升值论产生的国际、国内背景,指出美元大幅度贬值、美国贸易逆差居高不下、日本经济深陷通货紧缩以及中国国际收支顺差和外汇储备迅速增加共同催生了人民币升值论。作者认为“升值论”夸大了人民币汇率和中国的出口对美、日等国经济的消极作用,却忽略了人民币升值将对中国的外贸、外资、就业、物价和经济稳定发展产生极其不利的影响。因此,逼迫中国在目前的局势下调整人民币汇率、放松外汇干预是不合理的。中国可以也能够采取扩大进口、消化外汇储备、放宽购汇条件、抑制投机资本流入等政策措施,减少国际收支顺差,有效减轻人民币升值的压力。

This paper introduces the foreign and domestic backgrounds on appeal for RMB revaluation. The US (?) depreciation, Japanese deflation, the high trade deficit of the USA and Chinese surplus in the balance of payment are included. The author' s idea is that the appeal exaggerates the unfavorable effects on the USA and Japanese economy of RMB exchange rate and Chinese exports. RMB revaluation has harmful influences on Chinese trade, foreign investment, employment, prices and economy stability. It's unreasonable to ask China to revaluate its RMB. China is able to encourage more imports, less foreign reserves, more foreign exchange supply for corporates and individuals, to reduce the surplus in international payment and to ease the revaluation pressure.