我国IPO公司盈利预测可靠性实证分析

The Empirical Study on Reliability of China's IPO Earnings Forecast

选取了1999年～2001年期间262家在上交所和深交所首次公开发行股票的A股公司为样本,对首次公开发行股票公司盈利预测的可靠性及其相关影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明我国首次公开发行股票公司盈利预测缺乏可靠性,预测高估倾向显著。在众多影响因素中,发行价格、每股收益和受托审计的会计师事务所等三个因素对预测误差的影响显著,发行量、总资产、主承销商等因素的作用不显著。

The study analyzes a sample consisting of 262 IPOs shares traded on the SHSE and SZSE over 1999 -2001 Intervals to discuss the reliability of Chinas IPO earnings forecast as well as its effect factors. The findings show that the Chinas IPO earnings forecast is short of reliability and the overestimation is so striking. There are many factors, of which initial price, earnings per share and accounting firms responsible for audit are of significant impacts,while the others are not, such as factors of offering volume, dealing volume, gross assets and primary agent and so on.