摘要
China is a country in the period of economy takeoff. We cannot use the commonmethod to forecast its future economy level. This paper establishes an economic level forecastmodel of the countries whose economy is in the take off because of the stimulation of model country.The enlightenment of the model is from physics. If there are two substances, A and B, and a mediumbetween them, according to physics, when substance A is hotter than B, B's temperature willinevitably rise and close to that of A. Thus, this system tends to be a state of balance. Threefactors affect heat conduction between substance A and B. They are the difference of temperaturebetween two substances, the conductivity of medium and the characteristics of themselves. The modelis testified through two examples. And then we forecast the economic development level of China inlong term. This paper raises a model to solve the problem of research approaches. However, sincethere are some limitations on data source, problems will appear. For example, in certain years, ourforecast results do not suit the real situation. But in the long term, the tendency is accurate.Then this model can be amended in accordance with different situations.
China is a country in the period of economy takeoff.We cannot use the comm on method to forecast its fu-ture economy level.This paper estab lishes an economic level forecast mo del of the countries whose economy is in the take off bacause of the stimulation of mod el country.The enlightenment of the model is from physics.If there are tw o sub-stances,A and B,and a medium between them,according to physics,when substance A is hotter than B,B’ s temperature will inevitably rise and close to that of A.Thus,this system tends to be a s tate of balance.Three factors affec t heat conduca-tion between substance A and B.They a re the difference of temperature between two substances.the conductivity of meduimand the characteristics of th emselves.The model is testified thr ough two examples.And then we foreca st the econom-ic development level of China in long term.This paper raises a model to solve the problem of research approach-es.However,sice there are some limi tations on data source,problems will appear.For example,in certain yea rs,our fore-cast results do not suit the real situ ation.But in the long term,the tendecy is accurate.Then this model can be amended in accordance with different situations.
基金
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