逐步回归在牲猪生产决策中的应用

Stepwise Regression Applying in the Policy Decision of the Pig Production

湖南省是我国的牲猪生产区，邵阳市又是湖南的牲猪生产区之一．近几年来，邵阳市牲猪生产一直徘徊不前，为寻找影响牲猪生产的原因，本文选取粮食产量、牲猪外调量、家禽产量等多个因素，采用逐步回归的方法，求得它们影响牲猪出栏量的多元线性回归模型，并据此对１９９１年牲猪生产状况进行了预测，提出了恢复牲猪正常发展的努力方向和应采取的基本对策．

Hunan Province is the main producing area of pigs in China, while Shaoyang city is one of the main pig producing regions in Hunan. But in recent years, the pig production in Shaoyang has been at a standstill, and it has been getting worse since last Spring festival. In order to find out the reasons effected the pig production, by Choosing the grain yield and the total number of the pigs transfered to other places as the refering factors, the essay is trying to seek poly cell linear regression model which effects the total numbers of pork on the hoof by applying the method of Stepwise Regr- ssion. The essay makes a forecast of the number of pigs of Shaoyang district in 1991, and also points out the how to restore the pig production, and presents the basic measures which we must take to deal with the situation.