信息时代下“长三角”地区大中城市房价与地价关系分析

An Analysis of the Relationship between House Price and Land Price in Yantze River Delta Region Cities

近几年来,高房价现象引起了全社会的关注,房价与地价的关系问题也成为学术界研究的热点。本文利用长三角地区四座主要城市2000年至2010年的房屋销售价格指数和土地交易价格指数的季度数据,对长三角地区大中城市的房价和地价进行了基于向量误差修正模型(VEC)的因果关系检验,并在检验结果的基础之上分析了长三角地区大中城市房价与地价的价格传导机制。结果显示,长三角地区城市房价与地价的长期均衡关系主要是由房价变动引起地价变动,即房价是地价格兰杰意义上的原因,而相反并不成立。我们还发现,在长三角地区大中城市房价和地价的形成过程中,预期均起到非常重要的作用。

In recent years,the relationship between house price and land price is a hot topic of social studies which is caused by the high house price phenomenon.Based on 44 quarterly data of housing sales price index and land transaction price index from 2000-2010,vector correction model(VEC)is applied to measure the relationship between house price and land price in Shanghai,Nanjing,Hangzhou and Ningbo- four major cities of Yangtze River Delta region.The results show that the house price is a Granger cause of land price,but the contrary does not hold.That is to say,in the long run,equilibrium relationship between house price and land price is that the price changes of house cause the price changes of land.It confirmed the point of view of prices pull premium.We also found that expection has played an important role in the formation of both house price and land price in Yantze River Delta region.