我国卫生总费用与卫生资源投入的灰色关联分析

Grey Correlation Analysis on the Relationship between National Health Expenditure and Health Resource Input in China

目的:分析2003—2012年全国医疗卫生机构卫生人员数、床位数及万元以上设备台数和业务用房面积等四种主要卫生资源投入与卫生总费用的关联关系。方法:基于2003—2012年"卫生统计年鉴"数据,利用邓氏灰色关联分析应用模型,得到卫生资源投入与卫生总费用关联性的灰关联序。结果:万元以上设备台数与卫生总费用呈现高度并行性变化;床位数、卫生人员数和业务用房面积与卫生总费用的动态关系较弱。结论:(1)设备存量的增加可能是影响卫生总费用上涨的主要因素;(2)设备存量的过快增长极有可能造成资源浪费以及资源配置的不合理。

Objective:To indentify the association between National Health Expenditure and Health Resource Input from 2003 to2012, including the indicators of the amounts of health personnel, hospital beds, medical equipments(over 10 000 yuan) and occupied areas.Method:Based on the data of 'health statistic yearbooks' from 2003 to 2012, the grey correlation analysis model was applied to analyze the grey relation order between National Health Expenditure and Health Resource Input.Results: The increasing amount of holding medical equipment was significantly positively associated with the increase of National Health Expenditure; correlation among the National Health Expenditure, the amount of hospital beds, health personnel and occupied areas respectively was weak.Conclusion:(1) The increasing of medical equipments could be the main factor for rising health expenditure;(2) the excessive rapid growth of medical equipment amount could likely result in the waste of resources and the unreasonable resource allocation.