内蒙古自治区卫生总费用预测及影响因素研究:基于灰色系统理论模型

Prediction and Influencing Factors of Total Health Expenditure in Inner Mongolia: Based on Grey System Theory Model

目的:对2014—2017年期间的内蒙古自治区卫生总费用进行预测并对其影响因素进行分析。方法:运用数学GM(1,1)分析模型对卫生总费用进行预测,采用灰色绝对关联方法、灰色相对关联方法和灰色综合关联方法分别对影响卫生总费用的因素进行分析评价。结果:内蒙古自治区卫生总费用处于高速并持续增长的状态,并将于2017年达到13 02亿元;内蒙古自治区卫生总费用的主要影响因素来源于人均GDP、老龄化状况、卫生技术人员以及新增医院设备四项指标,其综合关联度均高于0.75,具有强关联性。结论:本研究对政府制定相关政策,控制不合理卫生费用增长有重要意义。

Objective:To predict the total health expenditure(THE) and analyze the influencing factors in Inner Mongolia from2014 to 2017.Methods:GM(1,1) model was used to forecast the THE in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.The gray absolute correlation method,gray relative correlation method and respectively Grey comprehensive correlation method were used to analyze the influencing factors of THE.Results:The THE of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was in rapid and continuous growth of the state,which would reach to 130.2 billion in 2017;the main influencing factors of THE in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region came from per capita GDP,the aging condition,health professionals and the new hospital equipments,its overall connection degree was higher than 0.75,with a strong correlation.Conclusion:The study was significant for government formulating relevant policies and control the growth of unreasonable health costs.