中国电影票房规模影响因素及预测——兼论新阶段中国电影产业发展战略

Influential Factors and Forecast of Chinese Film Market Size——Also on the Development Strategy of Chinese Film Industry in the High-speed Growth Period

在理论分析本土票房规模对电影产业发展重要意义的基础上,先用城市面板数据分析中国电影票房影响因素,再用月度时间序列数据、趋势外推法和票房指数法预测未来中国电影票房。主要结论是中国电影产业正在由过去潜在需求释放的高速增长期过渡到中高速增长的新阶段,政府应重视从供给侧为电影产业提供更好的发展环境。

Based on the theoretical analysis of the importance of the domestic box office for the development of a country’s film industry,this paper first analyzes the factors that influence the box office in China by using the panel data of urban cities, and then uses the monthly time series data prediction, trend extrapolation and the box office index method to predict the box office levels of Chinese movie in the next few years. The main conclusion is that the Chinese film industry is making the transition from the 'high-speed growth period' to 'medium-high-speed growth period'. Government should start paying more attention to provide a more healthy development environment for the film industry from the supply side.