秦淮灯会景气指数的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Qinhuai Lantern Festival Prosperity Index

秦淮灯会已成功举办了32届,不仅成为南京城市旅游地的元素性符号,而且享誉世界,成为江苏走向世界、建立文化自信的一种重要助推力量。本文采用合成指数模型,通过2008年至2017年的数据,对秦淮灯会景气指数进行测算。研究发现,秦淮灯会景气指数不仅呈现持续上升的趋势,而且具有阶段性的发展特征,尤其是近几年的发展速度尤为迅猛。在此基础上,本文对秦淮灯会发展背后的深层次原因进行讨论,以期对秦淮灯会的未来前景进行合理展望。

The Qinhuai Lantern Festival has been successfully held for 32 times. It has not only become an element symbol of Nanjing’s urban tourist destination, but also enjoys a great reputation in the world. For Jiangsu, it has become an important boost to set sights on world and establishes the cultural confidence. We use the composite index model to calculate the prosperity index of Qinhuai Lantern Festival through the data from 2008 to 2017. Result shows that the Qinhuai Lantern Festival prosperity index not only presents a continuous rising trend, but also characterizes by stages of development. The speed of development is more rapid, especially in recent years. On this basis,we discuss the deep-seated reasons behind the development of the Qinhuai Lantern Festival,in order to make reasonable prospect for the future prospects of the Qinhuai Lantern Festival.