电影续集权利估值——基于品牌延伸溢出效应

Valuation of Movie Sequel Rights——Based on Brand Extension Spillover Effects

从品牌延伸正向和反向溢出效应视角提出电影续集制作权的一种新估值方法,并分析续集的重要属性对估值的影响。通过对2010—2017年在中国内地影院放映的96部续集以及223部匹配非续集电影样本进行回归分析,估算正向溢出的续集权利价值。利用事件研究法,衡量续集上映对优酷网上母电影口碑的冲击,估算反向溢出的续集权利价值。这种估值方法可以解释续集和非续集电影之间的收入和风险差异,为投资者提供对两种投资方案进行风险评价的新方法。

We propose a new valuation method for movie sequel rights from the perspective of forward and reciprocal spillover effects of brand extension and analyze the impacts of key attributes in brand extension on valuation. By conducting regression analyses for 96 sequels and the matched 223 non-sequel samples screened in China's Mainland during 2010—2017,forward spillover value is estimated. Applying event study approach, the impact of the release of sequels on the word-of-mouths of their parent movies is measured and reciprocal spillover value is estimated. This method can be used to explain revenue and risk differences between sequels and non-sequel movies, thus providing investors with a new method to evaluate the risks of the two investment alternatives.