基于BP神经网络算法的汽车产业安全预警方法研究

The Research on the Industrial Security Warning and Countermeasure in the Process of Globalization:An Empirical Study of Automobile Industry

基于产业安全理论和产业现状,建立对外依存度、国际竞争力等四维度汽车产业安全评价体系。根据1998—2013年数据,基于BP神经网络模型,结合灰色预测GM(1,1)模型与主成份分析法对我国汽车产业安全现状进行了量化评价、结果检验与安全度预测。结果表明:汽车产业发展初期,受产业国际竞争力利好形势带动,安全度不断提升;近几年,产业国际竞争力提升缓慢,市场控制力下降、依存度上升,安全度增速下降,预测未来五年汽车产业安全程度将呈下滑趋势。

The evaluating system of automobile industrial safety was established based on industry security theory and industrial development status. After using the principal components analysis and BP-neural network to finish the quantitative evaluation,inspection and prediction by the data from 1998 to 2013,the result shows that the Chinese automobile industrial security is getting better promoted by industrial international competitiveness in the primary stage. However,the automobile industrial security exhibits a slower increasing trend owing to the decreasing of related index's growth rate in recent years. Prediction has been made that the situation of industrial security will get worse steadily in the next five years.