基于证据理论的大跨径悬索桥主塔施工风险分析

Main Tower Construction Risk Analysis of Long Span Suspension Bridge Based on Evidence Theory

通过分析主塔施工中存在的主要风险因素,明确风险评价指标,建立多层次指标体系,根据证据理论,构建主塔施工风险综合评估模型,确定了风险指标的基本概率分配函数,通过证据理论合成规则得到各级指标的风险等级及信任度,提出基于证据理论的大跨径悬索桥主塔施工风险评估方法。武汉杨泗港长江大桥主塔施工风险分析结果表明,主塔施工风险等级为Ⅱ级,需对主塔施工风险进行监测。该方法应用于桥梁施工风险分析与控制是可行的。

This paper clarified the risk evaluation index and sets up a multi-level index system through the analysis of the main risk factors in the construction of the main tower.According to the evidence theory,this paper constructs the comprehensive assessment model of the construction risk of the main tower,and determines the basic probability distribution function of the risk index.In this paper,we get the risk level and trust degree of all levels by evidence combination rule,and put forward the risk assessment method of the main tower construction of long-span suspension bridge based on evidence theory.The results show that the risk grade of the main tower construction in Wuhan Yang Si Gang Yangtze River bridge is gradeⅡ,so it is necessary to monitor the construction risk of the main tower.It is feasible to apply this method to the risk analysis and risk control of bridge construction.