核心CPI测度方法与我国货币政策有效性实证分析

The Measurement of Core CPI and the Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in China

CPI是衡量通货膨胀应用最为广泛的指标,但当前我国CPI体系存在着一些缺陷且易受到短期因素的冲击,这会导致政策当局所制定的货币政策的有效性降低。而能够较为准确的反映通货膨胀中长期走势的核心CPI可以帮助政策当局提高货币政策的有效性。本文在阐述了我国CPI体系的局限性后介绍了核心CPI的基本概念及测度方法,并运用剔除法对核心CPI进行测算后进行相关实证分析,得出核心CPI对于货币政策制定具有指导意义。但在运用核心CPI的同时也不能忽视CPI的作用。

CPI is the most widely used indicator of inflation. However, the current system of CPI in China is somewhat defective and vulnerable to the impact of short-term factors. As a result, it may reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy developed by policy making authorities. On the contrast, core CPI can more accurately reflect the long-term trend of inflation so as to help policy making authorities to make more effective monetary policy. This article first expounds the limitations of China's CPI system and then introduces the basic concepts and measurement methods of the core CPI. After that, the paper calculates the core CPI by elimination method and draws the conclusion that the core CPI is instructive in formulating monetary policy after an empirical analysis with core CPI. Besides, the paper suggests not ignoring the role of CPI when core CPI is used.