对中澳自由贸易区贸易效应的引力模型分析

Analysis on Trade of Sino-Australian Free Trade Area Based on Gravity Model

中澳两国自建交以来双边贸易规模不断扩大,贸易总额增长速度不断加快。2014年11月中澳两国结束实质性自贸协定谈判,2015年中澳将签署《中澳自贸区协定》。在对中澳贸易发展现状分析的基础上,采用贸易引力模型,对面板数据进行实证分析,研究中国与澳大利亚两国建立自由贸易区对我国进口与出口的影响效果。结果表明,中国与澳大利亚建立自由贸易区对两国贸易有较强的促进作用,但对我国进口的影响大于出口。

Since the establishment of diplomatic ties,Sino-Australian bilateral trade scale expands unceasingly and trade growth speeds.In November 2014,China and Australia end substantive negotiations of the free trade agreement,and the two countries in 2015 will sign the Sino-Australian Free Trade Area Agreement.Based on the current situation of the development of Sino-Australian trade analysis,this paper studied the effect of establishing China and Australia Free Trade Area on the import and export of China by using the trade gravity model and panel data for empirical research.The results showed that China and Australia Free Trade Area has a stronger role in promoting for bilateral trade and the impact on China’s import is greater than the exports.