关于中国“通缩出口”论的真伪性检验

The Verity Test for China's “Deflation Exportation” View

本文根据国际贸易中价格传递效应的理论 ,通过考察中、日、美三国间进出口价格的相互影响来检验是否存在所谓中国“通缩出口”的现象。为了使检验结果更具有统计意义上的稳健性 (Robustness) ,论文除了保留自己前期研究方法上的特色以外 ,还根据结构变化检验 (ChowTest)的结果 ,将上述这些方法分阶段运用 ,同时 ,又进一步利用体系转换模型 (RegimeSwitchingModel)来考察受货币政策影响的三种价格环境的制约作用。另外 ,对冲击反应函数 (VMA)又做了因素确定的方差分解 (VarianceDecomposition) ,从而使得价格传递效应的动态特征被揭示得更为明显和更为充分。最后 ,文章得出了两个重要的政策含义 :首先 ,中国“通缩出口”论是基于传统的“支出转移效应”的宏观分析视角 ,忽略了进出口企业的定价能力 (PTM)等微观要素 ,所以 ,这种主张不符合现实情况。其次 ,一国可以通过稳定国内的物价环境来制约汇率和外国价格的传递效应 (Taylor’sRule) ,这一点在美国表现得尤为突出。

The purpose of this paper is to test whether the phenomenon of China's “deflation exportation” exists by studying the interaction of the import and export prices of China, Japan and US according to the pass-through theory. In order to ma ke the test result more robust, we retained the innovations of empirical methods used in our former researches (Sun and Jiang, 2003), such as instrumental variable estimation (IV), general method of moments (GMM), ARIMA forecast model. Besides, we applied these methods to the different sample periods determined by the results of Chow Test. Furthermore, we used the Regime Switching Model to test the restrictive effects under three kinds of price environments that are influenced by the monetary policy. In order to show the dynamic characteristics of pass-through effect more clearly, we also made Variance Decomposition on the vector moving average (VMA) model.According to the empirical method above, we came to two important policy implications. First, the opinion that China exports deflation is based on the macro\|view of “expenditure switching mechanism'. It ignores the micro factors such as pricing ability of the import and export companies. Thus this view does not accord to the real situation reflected by the data. Second, one country's monetary policy can have a restrictive influence on the foreign countries' pass-through effect into domestic prices, which is extremely obvious in the US.