美国对华接触政策为何曾长期延续?

Why the U.S.Engaged China for 40Years?

自中美建交以来,美国执行四十余年的对华接触政策不仅促进了两国关系的发展,还为整个亚太地区的和平与繁荣创造了条件。然而,这个惠及多方的政策选项,近年来却在美国战略界的质疑声中难以为继。在此背景下,理解这一政策为何曾在过去长期延续,就成为一个颇具现实意义的问题。本文在界定接触政策的基础上,对聚焦这一问题的现有研究进行梳理和评价。一种观点认为,实力优势、相互依赖以及美国战略重心的转移促使美国长期对华接触。另一种观点认为,战略精英、意识形态和利益集团推动美国长期对华接触。还有一种观点认为,中国的战略欺骗与克制说服美国长期对华接触。这些观点都存在不足:结构约束只是减少了美国的对华政策选项,并不能说明美国选择接触政策的原因;国内政治固然会影响美国对华接触的战略判断,但中国因素也不容忽视;中国对美战略虽有说服美国对华接触的可能,但目前仍缺乏可靠的实证分析。由此可见,结构约束对美国对华政策的影响相对有限,学界必须更加重视中国对美战略与美国国内政治之间的互动及其对美国对华政策的影响。

Since the establishment of the diplomatic relations between China and the U.S.,the U.S.has adopted engagement policy toward China for 40 years,which has not only promoted the development of the bilateral relations,but also contributed to the peace and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region.However,such a constructive policy is questioned and challenged by U.S.strategists and seems difficult to sustain.In such context,understanding why the U.S.has maintained the engagement policy for 40 years has become a task of practical significance.The paper reviews three existing explanations for the question on the basis of a definition of U.S.engagement policy toward China.The'structural constraints'explanation holds that power advantage,interdependence and the transfer of the U.S.strategic gravity led to U.S.engagement policy toward China.The'domestic politics'explanation emphasizes the key role of strategic elites,ideology and interests groups.And the'China’s strategies'explanation argues that China convinced the U.S.to adopt engagement policy through strategic deception and restraint.All these explanations are somewhat problematic.'Structural constraints'only reduces U.S.policy options toward China,but fails to account for the U.S.choice of engagement.Although'domestic politics'does have an impact on the strategic assessment of the U.S.engagement with China,China factor should not be neglected.China’s strategies probably are effective in convincing the U.S.to adopt engagement policy.But there is a lack of reliable empirical evidence.Therefore,to provide a satisfying answer to the question,researchers should probably pay more attention to the interaction between China’s strategies and the U.S.domestic politics and the impact of such interaction on U.S.policy toward China.