通货紧缩、资产膨胀与货币政策——兼论当前中国的货币总量和货币结构问题

Currency Deflation, Asset Expansion and Monetary Policy

本文首先描述了中国通货紧缩与资产膨胀并存的金融怪现象,这是与传统理论相悖的;然后通过引入以资本市场为代表的虚拟经济部门将传统的货币数量论拓展为三部门的广义货币数量论,在新的模型框架下侧重从货币政策角度分析了通货紧缩与资产膨胀并存的生成机理。我们的分析表明:“中国悖论”是货币总量理论在偏松情况下货币结构严重失衡的产物,是货币结构失衡大于货币总量失衡的结果。优化货币结构是解决“中国悖论”的关键所在,中国货币政策应更多关注货币结构而不仅仅是货币总量问题。

In this article we, first of all, will describe the financial oddness of coexistence of China' s currency deflation and asset expansion, a phenomenon quite contradictory to traditional theory; then by the introduction of dummy economic departments represented by the capital market, the quantitative theory of broad money, a theory that extends the traditional quantity theory of money to three parts, will analyze, within the frame of a new model and mainly from the view of monetary policy, the mechanism that has produced the coexistence of currency deflation and asset expansion. Our analysis indicates that 'China' s financial oddness' is the result of serious imbalance in monetary structure-under the condition that the theory of aggregate money is not rigorous, and the outcome generated when the imbalance of monetary structure is greater than that of aggregate amount of money. And therefore optimization of monetary structure is key to solving the problem of 'China' s financial odd-ness' in making China' s monetary policy, while due attention should be paid to aggregate monetary amount, more should be paid to monetary structure.